Aging in Sweden

Following a comment from Kenny Petersson on the “Aging in Japan” post, I thought I would have a look at the aging problematic in Sweden, using the same charting and statistics I have presented for Japan. What it reveals is interesting, beyond the natural expectation that it would be quite different.

What is the story of aging in Sweden, including the UN “medium scenario” projection into the future? A steep aging process has also been well in progress for some time in Sweden. It is also projected for decades to come. But the first striking contrast with the Japanese situation is a no-contraction of the total population, seen in retrospect or as projected until the end of the 21st century. All four age groups identified in the chart below have been growing and are projected to continue to grow steadily.

The growth of the young population (0 to 14 years) has not been that steady. Between 1950 and 2015, it was fluctuating with a high year in 1955 (1.728 millions), a low year in 1985 (1.517 millions), up again by 1995 (1.665 millions), then down in 2010 (1.550 millions). After this most recent low level, it moved back to a growth pattern which is retained in the “medium scenario” projection

The evolution of the fertility rate (the number of children born to each woman in her child-bearing years) largely explains this. After a high point at 2.5 in 1964 (yet a rather low figure at the time among developed countries), the fertility rate progressively declined to 1.6 by 1977. It remained a few years at such a low level (with only Germany, Luxembourg and Switzerland recording a lower figure). The fertility rate resumed on a growth slope starting in 1984 to stabilize at 2.0, or slightly above, until 1993. By then, Sweden had the highest fertility rate in Europe, except for Iceland. Then, within only a few years, the rate went down to 1.5 by 1997, before regaining growth after 2000, to stand at, or close to, 2.0, a level recorded in 2015.

With continuous and substantial increase in life expectancy happening all along, the proportion of the young people in the population kept sliding down more or less regularly to get to 17.3% by 2015. The slow growth of the young population after 2010 and projected will just ensure that this proportion of the population does not further slide down too much.

Powered by a rather stable, growing at some periods, influx of young people and even more by high and increasing life expectancy, the working age population (15-64 years of age) experienced continued growth in numbers. In 1960, life expectancy at birth was already 73.1 years, third in the world behind Norway and the Netherlands, more than 5 years above that in Japan. It has increased regularly to reach 82.3 years in 2015. In comparison, Japan’s life expectancy at birth has moved up much faster, getting to 83.9 years in 2015.

With constant increases in life expectancy at birth, aging in Sweden couldn’t but progress regularly. In 1960, 10.2% of the Swedish population was 65 years or more, two-thirds being in the 65-74 years age group. As life expectancy at age 65 also increased regularly, people in this age group, in turn, moved on to the 75 years and over group in larger numbers. Again this increase in life expectancy at age 65, from 13.7 years in 1960 to 18.9 years in 2015 for men, and from 15.3 years to 21.5 years in the same years respectively for women, was not as fast as in Japan.

In short, the main difference between Sweden and Japan is what happened to the fertility rate and its resulting effect on the size of the youth population: a sharp decrease of the youth population in Japan, while a slow but steady growth, at least in the decade leading to 2015, then projected in the future. At the other end of the age spectrum, increasing life expectancy propelled aging to high figures, but the more moderate pace in Sweden preserved this country from the so rapid growth Japan has experienced, and will continue to experience according to the most recent projections.

However, some perspective needs to be kept: both Japan and Sweden are countries with a high old-age population. If Japan leads the OECD countries in this respect (26% in 2015), Sweden, about five percentage points below the Japanese number, appears high in the ranking as well – in fourth place, after Germany and Italy. As Kenny Petersson referred to in his comment, this is a matter of concern for public policies in relation to pensions.

A word about different implications of these demographic forces on the labour market:

• As a proportion of the total Swedish population, the working age population has reached a peak in 2007 (65.7%), but that population is still growing steadily in number, and projected to continue growing. It is not the case in Japan where the peak in the proportion of the working age population has been reached in 1992 (69.8%) and where the number has been declining as well since 1995.
• The labour force was at its highest point in the last figure recorded in 2016 in Sweden while it has been declining in Japan since 1998. Assuming a stable participation rate, the labour force will continue to grow in Sweden.
• The labour force participation rate is very high in Sweden – with 82% in 2016 (not the highest ever), more than five percentage points higher than in Japan (where it was the highest ever).

Non solum data – Data sine monito oculo nihil sunt.

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